23
Georgia Capital PLC Annual Report 2023
Georgia Capital PLC Annual Report 2023
22
Strategic Review
Overview
Strategic Review
Our Business
Strategic Review
Discussion of Results Governance Financial Statements Additional Information
Sep 16
Nov 16
Jan 17
Mar 17
May 17
Jul 17
Sep 17
Nov 17
Jan 18
Mar 18
May 18
Jul 18
Sep 18
Nov 18
Jan 19
Mar 19
May 19
Jul 19
Sep 19
Nov 19
Jan 20
Mar 20
May 20
Jul 20
Sep 20
Nov 20
Jan 21
Mar 21
May 21
Jul 21
Sep 21
Nov 21
Jan 22
Mar 22
May 22
Jul 22
Nov 22
Jan 23
Mar 23
May 23
Jul 23
Nov 23
0%
4%
8%
MARKET AND INDUSTRY OVERVIEW CONTINUED
The GEL has appreciated since mid-2021,
strengthening above pre-pandemic levels
against the US Dollar (US$) and remained
stable in 2023. Compared to the beginning of
2023, GEL has appreciated by 1.0% against
the US Dollar as of 15 March 2024. The
Georgian Lari remains above the pre-pandemic
levels on the back of strong external inflows,
ample FX liquidity, a tight monetary policy
stance, increased lending in foreign currency
and the overall positive economic growth.
Additionally, the Georgian Lari also appreciated
against the entire basket of trading partner
countries’ currencies, with the nominal effective
exchange rate up by 15% y-o-y and the real
effective exchange rate up 2.1% y-o-y by the
end of 2023.
Inflation, like elsewhere around the world, was
elevated during 2021-2022, however, it has
sharply reduced in 2023, falling below the 3%
target since April 2023, with annual average
inflation standing at 2.5% in 2023. In February
2024, headline inflation printed at 0.3%. All
major components contributed to falling
inflation in 2023, with food and transport prices
the largest contributors. Imported inflation,
which was by far the most significant driver of
increasing prices in 2022, has turned negative
in 2023, whilst inflation on locally produced
goods has begun decelerating as well. Strong
foreign currency inflow that supported the
appreciation of the Georgian Lari, has been an
important factor in the slowdown of inflation.
Continued fiscal consolidation, and a tight
monetary policy have also contributed to the
disinflation. Considering the latest inflation
trend NBG has begun a gradual exit from
tight monetary policy and reduced the policy
rate by 275 bps during May 2023 to March
2024 to 8.25%. NBG remains committed to
adjusting the policy rate depending on the
macroeconomic developments.
GEL stabilised above
pre-pandemic levels.
Inflation reduced sharply during
2023, standing at 0.3% in
February 2024.
As a result of the improved macroeconomic
environment, Fitch Ratings revised Georgia’s
sovereign credit rating outlook to positive
from stable in January 2023 and reaffirmed
the positive outlook in July 2023 and In
January 2024, citing “solid economic growth
prospects, credible macroeconomic and fiscal
policy framework and sound banking sector”.
In May 2023, a staff-level agreement was
reached on the second review for Georgia’s
three-year stand-by arrangement with the
IMF. The arrangement, worth US$ 280 million
was approved with the IMF in June 2022,
focusing on structural reforms and anchoring
macroeconomic policy. Since May 2023,
the review remains on hold as IMF staff are
examining the implications recent amendments
to NBG law will have on achieving the objectives
of the programme. They discussed these
with the authorities and acknowledged their
commitment to upholding the independence
and credibility of NBG and to continued
strong programme engagement with the
Fund. The programme is designed to maintain
macroeconomic stability and anchor policy
decisions by addressing fiscal and external
deficits, achieving the target inflation rate.
Additionally, it aims to strengthen the resilience
of the financial sector and promote agreed-
upon reforms in the governance of state-owned
enterprises, public financial management,
as well as tax and customs administrations.
Although the Government doesn’t intend to
use the allocated US$ 280 million as part of
the new arrangement (according to the IMF’s
reviews under the SBAs), the purpose of the
programme is to strengthen the agenda for
structural reforms and underscore confidence
in macroeconomic policymaking.
The IMF revised upward Georgia’s GDP growth
forecast from 4.0% (World Economic Outlook
(“WEO” – April 2023) to 6.2% in 2023 (WEO –
October 2023), while the medium-term growth
(2024-2028) projection stands at 5.1%, one
structural reforms ensures constant effort for
improving the business environment, the latest
examples being the VAT reform (adopted in
July 2020) and the new insolvency framework
(adopted in September 2020 and into force
since April 2021).
Despite challenges arising from the pandemic,
structural reforms and large infrastructure
projects to promote Georgia as a transit and
tourism hub and enhance long-term growth
are still underway. A new pension law was
adopted in 2018, enhancing long-term fiscal
sustainability, supporting capital market
development, increasing the replacement
rate, narrowing the current account deficit
and boosting potential output. A new bill on
investment funds was adopted in 2020, in line
with international practice and harmonisation
obligations with EU law, providing an up-to-
date regulatory framework for investment
activity. The Government focuses on
addressing the shortcomings in employee
benefit schemes, further cutting non-essential
expenditures, consolidating public sector
institutions, making social and healthcare
spending more targeted, privatisation schemes
and increasing capital expenditure efficiency.
Within the responsible lending framework, NBG
took macroprudential measures to decrease
household indebtedness, enhance financial
stability and strengthen regulation, supporting
the financial system’s resilience to currency
fluctuations and FX-induced credit risks. A new
important reform adopting the framework for
issuing mortgage covered bonds was adopted
by the parliament in 2022, aiming to provide
an additional source for a relatively cheap and
stable source of financing for credit institutions.
A business-friendly environment, renowned
in the region for best-in-class governance,
well-developed infrastructure, stable energy
supply, flexible labour legislation, a stable and
profitable banking sector, strategic geography
connecting European, landlocked Central Asian
and Middle East countries, and preferential
trading agreements, support Georgia to
become a regional hub economy.
The Government’s ongoing infrastructure
investments and increased spending on roads,
energy, tourism and municipal infrastructure
will also reinforce the potential. To enhance
Georgia’s competitiveness, the Government
continues to strengthen integration in existing
international systems as well as new transit
routes. Georgia is a regional energy corridor. In
November 2019, the Georgian PM, alongside
the Turkish and Azerbaijani presidents, opened
the Trans-Anatolian Pipeline, allowing natural
gas from Azerbaijan to be exported to Europe
Public debt down to 39% of GDP
by the end of 2023, below
pre-COVID levels.
through Georgia. In December 2022, leaders
of Azerbaijan, Georgia, Hungary and Romania
signed an agreement to build an underwater
electric cable in the Black Sea, further
positioning Georgia as an important player in
the EU energy policy.
Following the Russia-Ukraine conflict, and the
subsequent Western sanctions imposed on
Russia, the Government of Georgia has revived
plans to build a deep-sea port at Anaklia,
which would be located in the so-called Middle
Corridor, which connects China and the
countries of Central Asia to Europe through
Georgia and Azerbaijan. The port is expected
to be built with the co-participation of the state
and international investors.
Georgia’s business-friendly environment,
coupled with its sustainable growth prospects,
attracted FDI on average 8.4% of GDP over
the past decade. These capital flows boosted
productivity and accelerated growth. Public
infrastructure projects were also instrumental
in driving growth, as well as better realising the
country’s potential in logistics, transport and
tourism. Faced with low domestic savings, FDI
is an important source of financing growth in
Georgia, as well as a reliable source of current
account deficit funding. Total FDI amounted
to US$ 1.6 billion, down 24% y-o-y in 2023,
following a record high FDI number in 2022
(US$ 2.1 billion, 67% y-o-y). Major sectors
attracting FDI were: financial and insurance
activities (40% of the total), manufacturing (18%
of the total) and trade (7% of the total). The
share of reinvestment by foreign companies in
total FDI was 80% in 2023, more than 2019’s
47%. The increasing share of reinvestment
indicates investors trust in Georgia’s growth
model and the success of the profit tax reform
introduced in 2017. Planned investment and
infrastructure programmes, a rising number of
free trade agreements (FTAs) and a business-
supportive environment will support further FDI
inflows in the medium term.
Free trade agreements
There have been significant changes in
Georgia’s export structure and destination
markets in recent years; however, Georgia has
not yet fully tapped into international markets.
One of the biggest changes in destination
markets has been a reorientation from the
Russian market after the 2005 embargo, as
the embargo forced Georgian producers to
redirect exports to other Commonwealth of
Independent States (CIS) countries, the EU and
the Middle East. Exports to Russia picked up
again in 2013 as Russia reopened its borders
to Georgian products. Another significant
change concerns the growing importance of
China as a Georgian export market, as the
FTA effective from January 2018 has brought
a major acceleration of exports to China.
Since 2013, Georgia’s developed logistics and
transport infrastructure has helped shore up
opportunities for new re-export commodities,
including copper and pharmaceuticals.
Georgia’s potential to become a logistic hub
Inflation vs inflation target
Headline inflation
Core inflation Target
of the highest in the region. The IMF expects
headline inflation, which has fallen sharply in
2023, to be below the 3% target in 2024.
Reform-driven success
Georgia has carried out genuine economic
and structural improvements over the past
two decades. As a result, corruption has
decreased, productivity has been enhanced
and the economy has become more diversified,
supporting resilience against exogenous
shocks such as the global financial crisis and
the COVID-19 pandemic.
Georgia is ranked as a top performer in
governance and doing business indicators.
With a ranking of 7th in Ease of Doing
Business according to the latest report (World
Bank, Doing Business – 2020), Georgia
has implemented an array of reforms and is
characterised as a top-performing economy
in the region in which to start a business.
Furthermore, Georgia is ranked 1st out of
120 countries in the International Budget
Partnership’s 2021 Open Budget Index, as well
as 35th out of 184 countries by the Index of
Economic Freedom measured by the Heritage
Foundation in 2023 and 35th out of 194
countries in Trace International’s 2023 Matrix
of Business Bribery Risk. Georgia is on a par
with the European Union (EU) member states
and top in the Eastern Europe and Central Asia
Region in the 2023 Corruption Perception Index
by Transparency International.
The Economic Liberty Act, effective since
January 2014, ensures the continuation
of a credible fiscal framework for Georgia
by capping the fiscal deficit at 3% of GDP
and public debt at 60% of GDP. However,
the emergency escape clause allowed the
Government to surpass the thresholds
temporarily in order to manage the pandemic,
with the law requiring a return to the bounds
within three years. The fiscal deficit and debt,
based on Government’s preliminary data,
have now returned within these ceilings as
of 2023. The Economic Liberty Act also
requires electorates’ approval through a
nationwide referendum for imposing new
taxes and raising existing taxes, subject
to certain exceptions. Furthermore, as of
January 2017, corporate income tax for
non-banking and non-insurance corporations
is now only applicable to distributed profits;
undistributed profits, which are reinvested or
retained, are exempted. Georgia has one of
the friendliest tax regimes according to World
Bank’s Doing Business 2020 report, having
slashed the number of taxes from 21 in 2004
to just six currently. Commitment towards
Medium-term (2024-2028)
economic growth rate 5.1%,
one of the highest in the region
(IMF, October 2023).
has strengthened since sanctions on Russia,
with robust demand observed from Kyrgyzstan,
Kazakhstan, Azerbaijan and Armenia in 2023.
Importantly, re-exports reached a record high
of US$ 3.3 billion in 2023, accounting for 54.2%
of total exports and growing by 74.5% y-o-y,
first time ever exceeding domestic exports
since March 2023.
Together with established destinations,
improved access to large new markets, such
as the EU, China and Hong Kong, could
increase market penetration. There is also
scope for diversifying agricultural exports.
Georgia’s existing FTAs (with the EU, CIS,
EFTA, Türkiye, China and Hong Kong) and
the prospective FTA with India, as well as an
agreement with Israel and talks with South
Korea, offer significant upside potential for
Georgia’s exports.
The EU-Georgia Association Agreement, which
came into force in July 2016, and the related
DCFTA, effective since September 2014, have
laid the solid groundwork to improve governance,
strengthen the rule of law and provide more
economic opportunities by expanding the EU
market to Georgian goods and services. Closer
economic ties with the EU and trust in prudent
policymaking are also expected to attract foreign
investments to Georgia. Visa-free travel to the
EU, granted to Georgian passport holders in
March 2017, is another major success of the
Georgian foreign policy.
Following Ukraine’s plea to join the EU as it
battles Russia’s invasion, Georgia and Moldova
on 3 March 2022 submitted their applications to
join the EU. Georgia previously planned to apply
to join the EU in 2024. The European Council
granted a conditional European perspective to
all three countries, with Ukraine and Moldova
receiving the candidate status pre-emptively. For
Georgia, however, candidate status was made
subject to meeting a list of 12 conditions.
On 8 November 2023, the European
Commission adopted the 2023 Enlargement
Package – a set of documents explaining its
policy on EU enlargement. The final decision
was made on 14 December 2023 and the
European Council granted the status to
Georgia and called on Georgia to demonstrate
a clear commitment to EU values, continue
progress on its reform agenda and fulfil the
conditions specified in the Commission’s
report meaningfully and irreversibly. Granting
candidate status to Georgia is a significant
acknowledgment by the EU of the progress
made in recent years.
Although the specific advantages of EU
candidacy status for Georgia would depend
on the country’s specific circumstances, in
general, the attainment of EU candidacy status,
based on the other countries’ experiences
will have a positive impact in multiple ways,
specifically on economic growth, foreign
investment, and trade.